Insights
Essays by the founders on strategic foresight, scenario planning and how AI changes the way decisions get made.
More essays
Between Hype and Reality: Four AI Futures Based on What We Actually Know
AI per unit is cheaper than ever, but total costs are rising as autonomous agents consume most tokens. Adoption is lagging capabilities — here's a data-driven look at where AI is heading and four plausible futures.
Time to Innovation: Why Your Competitors Innovate Faster
A late product generates 33% lower profit over five years. Time to Innovation measures the organizational capability to turn opportunity into outcome — and data shows fast innovators are 18x more likely to be disruptive in their industry.
The Obsolescence Trap: Why Long-Term Plans Kill Innovation
A Czech bank is approving an AI project right now. It will be finished in 2027. The problem: nobody in that room knows what AI will look like in two years. This is the Obsolescence Trap — and it's closing faster than ever.
One Plan Is Not Enough
Why betting on a single future is the riskiest strategy you can choose today. Companies working with multiple scenarios are 33% more profitable — yet only one in five does it.
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